Data suggests three-pointers and shots in the lower half of the paint carry the most value. And you can apply it to almost any area of the game with certainty. Transparency in Coverage, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. If theyre above .8, were not happy. In fact, if you were to divide the number of points Player A scored by the number of minutes Player A could have played, you would divide 25/58, or .43 points per minute. AST: Assist Ratio - the percentage of a team's possessions that ends in an assist. The big messages here with the detailed possession formula are that offensive rebounds have to be backed out to help get the official number of possessions used by a team and avoiding over-counting possessions, and that .44 * FTA is the standard / good enough approximation for how many possessions were used by free throw activity (instead of having to count those possessions manually as the game goes on or afterwards by looking at video). I dont have a very good way to fix this, so this is not really a criticism but rather an observation. Privacy Policy | This is not how these stats work. This is the reason for the name player efficiency rating; the efficiency in question is a per possession efficiency. Turnovers occur when a team fails to score on a possession, and can significantly impact the teams PD. Turnovers per Possession. I think points per possession can show us that. Again, this is a normalized stat. 6) The way the stat is normalized to a per possession basis is a little strange. All Rights Reserved. However, each component of the formula attempts to capture in some way how a player impacts their teams efficiency or their opponents efficiency. The per-possession stat crafting is pretty similar to the per-36 minute stat. It at least has a chance of going in. Games Played Possessions per Game Extra Scoring Chances per Game Effective Possession Ratio Opponent Effective Possession Ratio Points + Rebounds + Assists per Game Points + Rebounds per Game Points + Assists per Game Rebounds + Assists per Game Steals + Blocks per Game Opponent Points + Rebounds + Assists per Game That cant possibly be correct. This basketball analytics formula is a more accurate measurement of the total number of possessions. D up! NBA CourtOptix | NBA.com PD can also be used to compare teams, with the team with the higher PD typically being the more efficient team. If two teams have a similar number of possessions, then the team with the higher PD will likely be the more efficient team. Say your PPP total dips in the second quarter, when your opponent began to apply a press defense. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. We also expected that if a paint touch occurred in a possession, it would equate to a higher points per possession than had there been only ball reversals. The goal of every player, then, should be to maximize their teams points per possession and minimize their opponents points per possession. The little t was meant as a placeholder for a specific teams name, the name of the offense, while they used o where necessary for the opposing team. Guide - League: Play Context /// Stats /// Cleaning the Glass Pair with effective field goal percentage to get a clearer picture. Are the Warriors Making the Mid-Range Relevant Again? Looking at the numbers broken down by quarter can also give you an idea of how your team responds to certain situations. My method was very simple: A slightly more advanced approach for finding totalpossessions: Im not sure it affected my team a whole lot as I think we got about four offensive rebounds the entire season. If we look at basketball analytics as a vast night sky of constellations, consider this stat your North Star. Assists per Game. Player Efficiency Rating (PER): Good Stat or Bad Stat? This of course is the foundational data of the analytics movement that NBA teams are now making personnel and tactical decisions around. Youre probably looking at the screen very confused right now, so Ill explain. A possession in 1969 is the same as a possession in 1999. This 0.9 points corresponds to the value added relative to an average possession. Scores from any date in BAA/NBA or ABA history, Frequently Asked Questions about the NBA, WNBA and Basketball, Basketball-Reference.com Blog and Articles, Subscribe to Stathead Basketball: Get your first month FREE. Dean Smith Was Pioneer in Use of Analytics - The New York Times 25 is more than 22, after all. The .44 is the factor in the total possessions formula that helps to pretty accurately measure how many possessions were used during the total of FT attempts. This happened in 40% of possessions. In the NBA, a possession can theoretically take up an entire quarter (if a team keeps missing shots but getting the ball back on an offensive rebound) or barely any time at all (if they immediately pass it to the other team), but in most cases, teams switch possession of the ball (due to an aforementioned event) every 1520 seconds. All Rights Reserved. How do you combat that? " Field Goal Attempts " is the number of shots on the basket (not including free throws). So, basketball as a game is all about how efficiently you use your possessions. Special Teams Points per Game (Estimated), Offensive Point Share Percentage (Estimated), Average Time of Possession (Excluding OT), Time of Possession Percentage (Excluding OT), Field Goal Conversion Percentage (Excluding Blocks), Opponent Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game, Opponent Red Zone Scores per Game (TDs only), Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only), Opponent Two Point Conversion Attempts per Game, Opponent Extra Point Conversion Percentage, Opponent Special Teams Touchdowns per Game, Opponent Offensive Points per Game (Estimated), Opponent Defensive Points per Game (Estimated), Opponent Special Teams Points per Game (Estimated), Opponent Offensive Point Share Percentage (Estimated), Opponent Fourth Down Conversions per Game, Opponent Average Time of Possession (Excluding OT), Opponent Time of Possession Percentage (Excluding OT), Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage, Opponent Fourth Down Conversion Percentage, Opponent Non-Offensive Touchdowns per Game, Opponent Field Goal Conversion Percentage, Opponent Field Goal Conversion Percentage (Net of Blocks), Percent of Games With Interception Thrown, Opponent Percent of Games With Interception Thrown, Opponent Giveaway Fumble Recovery Percentage, Opponent Takeaway Fumble Recovery Percentage. 1) First and foremost, there is no adjustment for the quality of teammates and opponents. And I just want to play at a faster pace, so I want to make sure I can keep that efficiency weve had, while playing faster.. Points per possession (PD) is a measure of a team's efficiency in converting their possessions into points. In over a quarter of half-court possessions, teams are not reversing the ball or getting into the paint! PPP is the team's points per possession scored on possessions with a ball screen involving this player. At the high school level, youll see teams using the points per possession marks to judge how efficient their offense was on a particular night, taking the final point tally out of it. The second issue with per-36 minute stats is that minutes arent actually the most accurate measure of activity in a basketball game. Simply refer to a basic shot chart and analyze PPS from the three zones above using these formulas: So your mission as a coach is to create conditions whichproduce the shot attempts carryingthe most value. 2021 Thanksgiving Football Odds and Predictions. This one is pretty straightforward, if you cause your team to lose possession, you get the credit for the lost 1.1 PPP your team has accrued. 8) Finally, box scores dont tell the whole story. A possession: A statistic in basketball defined as the time a team gains offensive possession of the ball until it scores, loses the ball, or commits a violation or foul. Per-possession stats are subject to the same sample-size problems as 36-minute stats, as a player who scores 2 points in 1 possession on the court is in no way guaranteed to score 100 points if he . Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. All Rights Reserved. But this type of possession only occurred 4% of the time. Lets break this down further. GP Games Played Poss Possessions Freq Frequency PPP Points Per Possession PTS Points FGM Field Goals Made FGA Field Goals Attempted FG% Field Goal Percentage The. The introduction is here. Put your men's basketball knowledge to the test with our daily men's basketball trivia game. They have a better chance of scoring when that player is left in isolation or involved in a pick and roll. Thats why, to account for the speed, many coaches are turning to points per possession. 2021-22 NBA Player Stats: Per 100 Possessions - Basketball-Reference.com PD is also a useful statistic for comparing teams. POSSt = FGAt + 0.44 FTAt - OREBt + TO. Devote time accordingly. Stadiums. That's where OREB% comes in. Its really easy math and a pretty good estimate of how many possessions are in a basketball game, which is why statisticians chose it, I think. Advanced Basketball Analytics Formulas to Help You Win Fantasy Points Allowed. Normalizing to live on a scale with the average being 15 doesnt really make sense. Data Provided By Each team gets the ball nearly an identical amount of times. Its easy to measure. Record a steal? If a team, due to their pace of play (which, remember, is a measure of both teams possessions) gives up 105 points per game on 100 possessions per game, thats the same as a team giving up 100 points per game on 95 possessions (about 1.05 points per possession). in 20062007, they gave up 102.9 points per game, much more than a team like the New Orleans Hornets, which gave up about 97. Isolating by shot type, free throws are usually going to be your highest points per possession total, hovering somewhere near 1.3. Regardless, is anyone else tracking this? Using points per possession with lineups can help you manage them much more efficiently. Any shot, from a high-value or a low-value area, is superior to a turnover. As an example, in 19691970, when the average team had 117 possessions per game, the average team attempted 99 shots (the disparity here is due to free throws and turnovers), while in 19981999, the average team with 89 possessions per game attempted about 78 shots per game. Just as football opponents will dare the non-passing team to pass, basketball opponents will dare the non-shooting team to shoot. Outside of all the discussion about pace and per minute statistics in the NBA, the game is really about efficiency per possession. In fact, one team, lets call them Team A, scored 0.893 PPP and turned the ball over just 14% of the time over 319 possessions when there were no ball reversals or paint touches. Im James and Im a passionate basketball fan. Sometimes just 1, sometimes 3. What follows are some dos and donts for getting to 1.0 PPP. Any questions,contact us! For example, if a player scored 10 points while on the floor for 50 possessions, then that player scored .2 points per possession. NBA Team Possession Profiles - inpredictable By normalizing stats to a per-possession basis, we take out the differences in pace of play and in doing so can get closer to crafting real comparisons between players and teams. 36 minutes is commonly considered an average number of minutes for an NBA starter, so by normalizing a players stats for 36 minutes, you can get a sense of how a player might produce as a starter. Henry Sims played 13 minutes, and, when you divide 36 by 13, you get 2.77. GP:Games Played; PTS:Points Per Game; FGM:Average Field Goals Made; FGA:Average Field Goals Attempted; FG%:Field Goal Percentage 3PM:Average 3-Point Field . Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information | So, lets say youre comparing stats of two players who played last night. What surprised us was that for 25% of the teams, this was not their worst category. These types of players (2020-2021 PJ Tucker?) The mid-to-late-2000s Phoenix Suns are credited, in part, with speeding basketball back up. "The average possession of the Los Angeles Lakers in 2008 generated .98 points per possession Kobe Bryant only shot the left-handed pull-up jumper at a 44% clip. PD takes into account all scores, regardless of whether they come from two-point shots, three-point shots, or . The most frequent type of possession was just getting the ball into the paint either by pass or by drive. Good players will both help their team out-score their opponents (as measured by real plus minus) and they will accrue meaningful box score statistics that impact the outcome (as measured by PER). Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. PDF Pocket Guide: TeamSTEPPS: Strategies & Tools to Enhance Performance and 5) Perhaps I am reading the formula wrong, but I think too many points are being given for a made basket. Security Basketball Plays, Drills and Articles for Students of the Game. Box score statistics can all be translated into quantities that measure how a player impacts either their teams efficiency or their opponents efficiency. In basketball, teams trade possession of the ball after a few different types of what well call events. So, when the ball is stolen from a player and the other team takes possession, this event is labeled as a turnover. Again, many services now provide EFG% for you but here is a formula for computing it manually: You can also use an EFG% calculator. NBA Per Possession Statistics Season: 1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 Playoffs: Exclude Playoffs Playoffs Only Regular+Playoffs | From Date: To Date: NBA Team Effective Possession Ratio - TeamRankings.com Assists per Possession. So where are per-36 minute stats helpful? So, even if a team somehow holds the ball for two minutes, thats still one possession, and when the other team gets the ball, thats one possession for them as well, even if they only then have it for fifteen seconds before giving it back. Second, the per minute number is adjusted for your teams pace. Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Aside from outstanding players, what must a team have in order to get to 1.0? Thats 21 fewer opportunities to score per game per team, on average. POSSt = FGAt + 0.44 FTAt - OREBt + TO is the formula for accurately measuring the total number of possessions. As you can see three-point attempts and shots at or near the rim yield the highest PPS. He was one of the best isolation players that weve studied. To make matters worse, Syracuse lost 5 games by 5 or less points. To do so, we tracked the number of paint touches and ball reversals before a shot attempt, foul, or turnover in a half-court possession. By this I mean that every possession is essentially counted equally for both teams, as by definition a change in possession can only happen when the other team gets the ball. Imagine Sims played 1 minute and in that 1 minute scored 2 points and grabbed 1 rebound. Do you have a sports website? 3P capability can be recognized as a game changer because that offensive skill can be trained and evaluated in big men of a team as well. On average, teams fared best when there were 2 or more ball reversals and a paint touch in a possession, scoring 1.189 PPP. Offensive and defensive rebounds are adjusted down from the full 1.1 points by an amount corresponding roughly to the probability that one of your teammates would have recorded that same rebound if you hadnt. That is roughly seven percent of all teams. When you take away the pass, they take what the defense gives and move the ball with the run. Player efficiency rating therefore contains a factor which estimates how much impact your fouls have on the game. I love those charts, says Lynden Christian (Wash.) girls basketball coach Brady Bomber. Offensive efficiency will improve by implementingcutting, spacing and offensive concepts which produce these shots. Third, getting to 1.o is hard without shooting if you do not have a dominant inside player(s). Team Offense League Averages Per Team Season. Free throws also carry a high PPS value. NBA League Averages - Per 100 Possessions - Basketball-Reference.com Players who have a higher usage rate will tend to have a lower efficiency, Decreasing your teams efficiency by losing possession. This was reflected in the scoring, as teams in 9899 scored about 92 points per game, and in 6970 that number was 116.7. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. OPEN SHOT ATTEMPTS - WHAT'S BEHIND THE NUMBERS? It is calculated by dividing the total number of points a team has scored by the total number of possessions they have had, and it should be adjusted for turnovers. College basketball Power Rankings - Gonzaga finishes the regular - ESPN At the end of the road, were left with a final stat that looks like this: Dont get me wrong, I think PER is basically on the right track and has the potential to be a really good metric. The other ways you can gain possession for your team are with a block or an offensive/defensive rebound. Basketball is no different. Pro Football . At its core, the objective is simpledivide pointsby number ofpossessions. Watch NEWSMAX LIVE for the latest news and analysis on today's top stories, right here on Facebook. Teams have a limited amount of time to score as many points as they can with each possession. Youd expect that when the ball is reversed from side to side, the offense would have the defense moving, which would create better offensive opportunities. Points per Possession = Points / Possessions. NCAA BB Team Turnovers per Possession - TeamRankings.com In the last half of the 2000s to now, the pace of the game has steadily risen, though its still nowhere near where it was in the 60s and 70s. (per Synergy Sports) To crack the top seven percent on the womens side your offense would need to operate at 0.912 PPP or higher. If you dont have the type of team that can scorch the nets or score at an efficient clip, you need to limit your opponents PPP with your defense. The first level of advanced stats in basketball is an attempt to normalize stats, on a few different levels. The purpose of POSSt = FGAt + 0.44 FTAt OREBt + TO is to make clear that FGAt, FTAt and TO are the 3 ways that possessions end and that OREBt extend possessions and allow additional FGAts, FTAts and TOs within that same possesion of the ball so it requires the OREBts to be subtracted to keep an accurate count of team possessions. When you multiply 2.77 by Henrys points, rebounds, and assists, you get 11 points, 17 rebounds, and 3 assists. Getting to 1.0 points per possession (PPP) places your offense in the upper echelon of thecompetitive landscape. Sometimes, like on a fast break, a defensive foul is a good play and you shouldnt be penalized for it. Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per possessions) with the lineup on the floor, not adjusted for strength of opposition.. A lower value is . In different eras of basketball, the pace of play has varied wildly due to league trends. For decades, Coach Dean Smith would tell his players, both at halftime and after a game, how many points they had scored and had allowed per possession. to scoring based events. There is no mechanism in the game to give one team more possessions than another (assuming, of course, that one considers an offensive rebound as continuing a possession rather than an entirely new possession to begin with). This is where per-possession stats come into play. Think of it like this: usually on defensive rebounds there are four defenders around the ball that all could have gotten the DRB if they wanted but only one actually gets that rebound. An Introduction to Advanced Basketball Statistics: Understanding Efficiency needs to be measured relative to the difficulty of the action. Points Per Possession (PPP), is a player evaluation metric that refers to a player's scoring efficiency. TeamRankings.com is not affiliated with the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) or March Madness Athletic Association, neither of which has supplied, reviewed, approved or endorsed the material on this site. Run! COMING UP: 7 AM ET - Wake Up America 9 AM ET -. That is roughly seven percent of all teams. By normalizing these players stats to 36 minutes, we can better compare their stats for the game, which is important when a minutes disparity is so large. Installing a Goalrilla Basketball Goal: Step-by-Step Guide. NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Points per Play | TeamRankings.com Create categories of turnover types and look for ways to replicate the common themes you uncover in practice. Use Analytics to Learn What Drives Efficiency For Your Team. Its simple. all rights reserved. All Rights Reserved. Football news and gossip column: Jurgen Klopp says he has chosen Top 3 Advanced Analytics- PPP, TS%, eFG% - BenchBoss. With this new technology, coaches at every level of the game can have real-time advanced analytics at their fingertips, captured automatically during practices and games. On the DI collegiate womens side, two of the 351 teams UConn and Oregon operated above 1.0 PPP. If I wasnt told, I wouldnt know if PER=25 is merely a good player or an all time great player. The first is per-36 minutes, which is the easiest to calculate, but the most imprecise. Printed from TeamRankings.com - 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. It doesnt really matter as long as the two players are on an even scale. However, the data clearly shows that there isnt a cookie cutter solution to maximize the efficiency of your team. At this point, the statistic truly could be called player efficiency rating because it is a measure of how many points each player adds to their team's value per possession. This means that the number of points they score over a given period of time is an important measure of their performance. Points per possession (PD) is a measure of a teams efficiency in converting their possessions into points. The point being, fouls should be incorporated into the formula more carefully. On average this was the case. If you record a foul on offense, it is a turnover. Sports analytics Evaluation of basketball players and team TeamRankings.com is solely responsible for this site but makes no guarantee about the accuracy or completeness of the information herein. Pts / (FGAt + 0.44 FTAt - OREBt + TO) will equal points per possession, but there is no need to use this formula to make the calculation, just use the easier one listed above if you are after points per . If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it. Your EFG% may not have to be high to win a game, but it needs to be higher than your opponents! What stats does a coach need to wrap his or head around to have an offense that operates at this level? So, 36 minutes in one game can mean something wildly different than 36 minutes in another game. ShotTracker TEAM changes that. There are a few bottom lines you must accept. PD can be used to evaluate a teams performance on the court. It is calculated by dividing the total number of points a team has scored by the total number of possessions they have had. To counteract this, the points added per minute is transformed into points added per possession by multiplying by an estimate of a teams possessions per minute. This stat is very important when considering players from different eras, considering what we know about them. A First Look at the NBA Finals Matchup Between the Nuggets and Heat If they only reduced that number from 17 possessions to 10, and had 7 more possessions that combined 2+ ball reversals and a paint touch, on average, they would score 5 more points per game. This is because of personnel differences. But with this information, Team As coach knows that late in a game, he doesnt want his team to reverse the ball and risk a turnover. Points per Possession - Hoop Coach Thus, the score of the game is entirely dependent on how efficient each team is on their own possessions. Points Per Possession NBA Teams 2022 | StatMuse We had a group where the first and fourth quarter were were really good numbers, but for some reason in the second quarter we just werent as good efficiency-wise, so were trying to figure out, why is that? First, we take the unadjusted player efficiency rating and divide by minutes played so that players with more minutes dont automatically look better. EFG% and PPP certainly have spacing implications. What I hope to accomplish with this series is to demystify, and, indeed, argue for the importance of, so-called advanced stats. This tells us how efficient a team was in a purely halfcourt context. You bring Player A down to Player Bs level, or Player B up to Player As level. 2) If you look at Wikipedias list of highest career player efficiency rating, youll notice the top two are the two GOATS, Lebron James and Michael Jordan. Its not enough just to play with poiseyou have to be fast, too. PPP becomes more meaningful when it is broken down into events such as PPP in isolation plays, PPP in pick-and-roll situations. Equation. For some context on what 5 ppg can mean: Florida State and Syracuse, who compete in the same conference, had an average scoring margin of +10 and +5.2 in the 2016-17 season. When you compare that to Team C, who played with two traditional post players you can see the difference in how each team scored. All these taken together leads to the third component: scoring points. The historical average for possessions used up is 0.44 FTAt. As is, the number itself doesnt really tell you anything. Calculating PD is relatively straightforward. At the highest levels of basketball, youll see video coordinators and assistant coaches using it to measure everything from a certain plays success, to how they hedge off screens or deploy a certain defense. How can you create those? David Robinson is surely a great all-time player, but nowhere near the 5th best. So far in this series, we've focused on a specific stat in each entry, but today we're talking about the whole enchilada - points per possession. Hudl is a product and service of Agile Sports Technologies, Inc. All text and design 2007-2023. Then I'll find each team's weighted ppp score by taking rppp/eppp. In the 2017-2018 NCAA basketball season 25 out of the 353 Men's Division I basketball teams operated at 1.0 points per possession (PPP) or higher. We begin by developing an intermediate stat which is unadjusted player efficiency rating. Making things even more complicated is the breakneck pace-and-space ethos that has quickly become the new normal at every level of the game. Shots at the rim and three-pointers have the same symbiotic relationship. Turnovers do to PPP what taking a zero on an assignment does for your final grade.
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